The ‘largest El Niño in living memory’ is currently developing over the Pacific Ocean, according to the Met Office. The UK and parts of Europe could see extreme weather and increased rainfall this autumn and winter due to the ‘unprecedented’ event.
But what is an El Niño?
An El Niño is a natural climate pattern that is declared when sea temperatures in the eastern Pacific rise 0.5°C above the long-term average. It occurs roughly every two to seven years and impacts rainfall patterns and average temperatures across the globe.
Current measurements predict that sea temperatures could rise by more than 3°C during this El Niño in the coming months, meaning this could be the ‘largest such event’ since the 19th century.
The release of heat from the ocean into the atmosphere during El Niño events increases global average temperatures and impacts rainfall. 2027 is predicted to be the warmest year on record as a result. Despite this, it could take months of rainfall before rivers and reservoirs are replenished following the recent drought.
Professor Adam Scaife, Head of Long Range Forecasting at the Met Office, said: “We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event. I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts. A typical El Niño leads to an equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature rise of between one to 2°C, with 2°C being a really big event.
“This implies that if the forecast is accurate – and other forecast systems show similar extreme values – then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Niño and its worldwide climate influences.”
Dr Nick Dunstone, a science fellow at the Met Office, said: “During large El Niño events, significantly more heat is released from the ocean to the atmosphere, leading to an increase in global average temperature, particularly in the calendar year following the winter peak of the El Niño. Hence, 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record and be another year to temporarily exceed +1.5°C above the pre-industrial period.”
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